Sentiment & CycleWeight: 58 / 100 · Source: Calculated

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Position — Where Are We in the 4-Year Cycle?

Bitcoin's supply issuance halves every ~4 years, creating a predictable demand-supply dynamic. Historically, the deepest bear market troughs occur 60–75% through each cycle (~days 876–1095 after the halving). This signal locates the current position in the cycle.

What It Measures

The percentage of the current 4-year halving cycle that has elapsed, based on the date of the most recent halving and the average cycle length of 1,458 days.

How It's Calculated

Cycle position = (days since last halving) / 1,458 days × 100%. Last halving: April 19, 2024 (block 840,000). Next expected halving: ~April 2028.

Bottom Signal

60–75% through the cycle (approximately days 876–1095 post-halving) — historically the maximum pain zone for Bitcoin. The 2018 and 2022 cycle bottoms both occurred in this range.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018 bottom: ~70% through cycle | Mar 2020 crash: ~90% (anomalous macro event) | Nov 2022 bottom: ~68% through cycle