Moderate-High — Accumulate Gradually
Bitcoin cycles are driven by on-chain fundamentals, miner economics, and macro liquidity — not short-term price noise. This tool aggregates 25 on-chain and macro signals into a single daily probability score from 0–100%, indicating how closely current conditions resemble past cycle bottoms. A score above 65% has historically been a high-conviction DCA window. Updated twice daily, free, no signup required.
Each signal is individually weighted (0.35–0.95) based on historical predictive accuracy. The composite score is a weighted average calibrated against every Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2017.
Each signal has its own page with a full explanation, live chart, historical readings at cycle bottoms, and how it's calculated.
Every Bitcoin cycle bottom has occurred 60–75% through the halving cycle. The April 2024 halving places the historical bottom window in late 2025 – mid 2026. Learn how each phase works and which on-chain signals confirm the accumulation phase.
Explore the Cycle →What if you only DCA'd when on-chain signals showed cycle bottom conditions? Compare uniform DCA against signal-based DCA using real historical data from 2017 — see how much more BTC you'd have accumulated.
Try the DCA Calculator →Check the score above. A reading above 65% means current on-chain conditions closely resemble the conditions present at every major cycle bottom since 2017. Between 45–65% suggests gradual accumulation. Below 30% suggests patience.
No single metric is definitive, but when MVRV drops below 0, Puell Multiple falls under 0.5, SOPR stays below 1, exchange reserves are declining, and funding rates are deeply negative — the historical base rate for being within 20% of the cycle low is very high. Our model weights all 25 signals together.
MVRV Z-Score = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) / Standard Deviation. It measures how far the current price is from the aggregate cost basis of all coins. Values below 0 have marked every major cycle bottom.
The Puell Multiple is daily miner revenue divided by its 365-day moving average. Values below 0.5 indicate miners are operating at a loss relative to historical norms — a condition that has historically preceded cycle recoveries.
This is not financial advice. The tool gives a probabilistic read on where we are in the cycle based on on-chain data. Use it alongside your own research and risk tolerance. Try the Bitcoin DCA Calculator to compare signal-based vs uniform DCA strategies using historical data.
Twice daily: 00:05 UTC and 12:05 UTC. On-chain metrics reflect prior-day confirmed blockchain data. ETF flows and macro data update in near real-time.
The last confirmed cycle bottom was November 2022 (~$15,500) after the FTX collapse. Prior bottoms: December 2018 (~$3,200) and March 2020 (~$4,900). All three were flagged by MVRV Z-Score below 0, Puell Multiple below 0.5, and deeply negative funding rates — the same signals this model tracks.
On-chain analysis reads data recorded directly on the blockchain — wallet balances, coin age, miner revenue, realized prices, transaction flows — to assess market health. Unlike price charts, on-chain metrics reveal actual economic behavior: when holders are accumulating, when miners are capitulating, when coins are moving from weak to strong hands. These fundamentals tend to lead price at major turning points.
Bitcoin bear markets typically involve 50%+ drawdowns lasting 6+ months. Our 25-signal model tracks whether current conditions resemble late-stage bear markets (high score) or mid-cycle corrections (moderate score). A reading above 65% historically coincides with the period where risk/reward for long-term investors is highest.
The Fear and Greed Index measures sentiment (0 = Extreme Fear, 100 = Extreme Greed) using volatility, momentum, social media, dominance, and search trends. Extreme Fear below 20 has historically appeared near cycle lows. It is one of 25 signals in this model, weighted at 0.55/1.0.
The Hash Ribbon identifies miner capitulation — when less efficient miners shut down due to low profitability. A buy signal fires when the 30-day hash rate moving average crosses back above the 60-day after a decline. This crossover has historically occurred within weeks of major cycle bottoms.
Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Read the full methodology →