Market & MacroWeight: 78 / 100 · Source: FRED

Real Yield (10Y TIPS) — Bitcoin Risk-On/Off Signal

Real yields — Treasury yields adjusted for inflation expectations — determine the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. High positive real yields make risk-free bonds attractive, pulling capital from Bitcoin. When real yields peak and roll over, Bitcoin has historically bottomed.

What It Measures

The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield — the return on US government bonds after inflation. Represents the true risk-free rate of return available to investors.

How It's Calculated

10-Year TIPS Constant Maturity yield from FRED. Score peaks when real yields are at their highest (worst for Bitcoin) and bottoms when they roll over.

Bottom Signal

Real yields peaking above 1.5–2% and beginning to decline — this transition from peak real yield environments has coincided with Bitcoin cycle bottoms.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Oct 2022: 10Y TIPS peaked near 1.7% as BTC bottomed | 2018: TIPS rising through the bear market, peaked as BTC bottomed