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Bitcoin Bottom← Today's Score
Market & MacroWeight: 93 / 100 · Source: FRED

Global Liquidity (M2 + Fed Balance Sheet) — Bitcoin Macro Signal

Global macro liquidity — the combination of M2 money supply growth and Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion — is one of the strongest macro drivers of Bitcoin price. When liquidity contracts, risk assets including Bitcoin typically fall. When it expands, Bitcoin historically rallies hard.

What It Measures

The year-over-year rate of change in global liquidity, combining US M2 money supply with the Federal Reserve balance sheet. Captures both monetary base expansion and commercial bank money creation.

How It's Calculated

Composite score of M2 YoY % change and Fed balance sheet YoY % change. Positive when liquidity is expanding, negative when contracting (QT).

Bottom Signal

Deeply negative composite — liquidity is contracting (Fed QT + M2 shrinking) but approaching a turning point. Bitcoin bottoms have historically occurred when liquidity is at its tightest and market prices in the pivot.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018: M2 growth slowing + Fed hiking cycle | Nov 2022: Peak QT + M2 contraction first since WWII

How to Read the Score

+0.3 to +1.0
Strong Bottom Signal
0 to +0.3
Mild Bottom Signal
−0.3 to 0
Neutral / Slight Caution
−1.0 to −0.3
No Bottom Signal
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Not financial advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.