Market & MacroWeight: 80 / 100 · Source: FRED

Fed Funds Rate — Bitcoin Macro Cycle Indicator

The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is one of the most powerful macro forces affecting Bitcoin. When the Fed is hiking into a peak, risk assets suffer. When rates peak and the market prices in a pivot, historically Bitcoin has bottomed.

What It Measures

The US Federal Funds Effective Rate — the overnight lending rate between banks, set by the Federal Reserve's FOMC. The most watched interest rate in global finance.

How It's Calculated

Directly from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). Score is computed based on the rate level, the direction of change (hiking vs cutting cycle), and how close rates are to an expected peak.

Bottom Signal

High rate environment (>4%) where cuts are imminent or have just begun — peak rate cycles have coincided with Bitcoin cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018 bottom: Fed paused hiking at 2.25–2.5%, pivot followed | Nov 2022 bottom: peak at 4.25–4.5%, cuts came in late 2023