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Bitcoin Bottom← Today's Score
Market & MacroWeight: 80 / 100 · Source: Binance Futures

Long Liquidation Cascade — Bitcoin Forced Selling Signal

Liquidation cascades occur when leveraged long positions are forcibly closed, creating a chain reaction of selling. Large OI drawdowns (>30% over 90 days) signal that excessive leverage has been flushed from the system — a necessary precondition for a sustainable bottom.

What It Measures

The percentage decline in total open interest on Bitcoin perpetual futures over a 90-day window. Captures forced deleveraging events that flush leveraged speculation from the market.

How It's Calculated

OI drawdown = (Peak OI − Current OI) / Peak OI over trailing 90 days, measured from Binance perpetual futures data.

Bottom Signal

OI drawdown exceeding 30% — the market has flushed most leveraged long exposure. Post-cascade environments have historically been strong accumulation zones as speculation is minimized.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

May 2021 China ban: −45% OI | May 2022 LUNA collapse: −40% OI | Nov 2022 FTX: −50% OI

How to Read the Score

+0.3 to +1.0
Strong Bottom Signal
0 to +0.3
Mild Bottom Signal
−0.3 to 0
Neutral / Slight Caution
−1.0 to −0.3
No Bottom Signal
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Not financial advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.