On-ChainWeight: 88 / 100 · Source: Binance (90d/365d MA)

STH/LTH Dynamics — Short-Term Holder Capitulation Signal

Short-term holder (STH) and long-term holder (LTH) cost basis dynamics reveal who is in profit and who is underwater. When price falls below the 90-day moving average (the STH cost basis proxy), short-term holders are all at a loss — a classic capitulation signature.

What It Measures

The relationship between current BTC price and moving average cost bases (90-day for short-term holders, 365-day for long-term holders). Signals the degree of capitulation among recent buyers.

How It's Calculated

Computed from Binance daily closes: 90-day MA (STH proxy) and 365-day MA (LTH proxy). Score normalizes the gap between price and these moving averages.

Bottom Signal

Price below the 90-day MA (all short-term holders underwater) — every major cycle bottom has featured this capitulation signature along with LTH accumulation continuing despite losses.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018: deep below 90d + 365d MAs | Jun 2022 LUNA crash: deep below STH MA | Nov 2022: below both MAs