Reserve Risk — Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Conviction Signal
Reserve Risk measures the risk-reward of investing in Bitcoin relative to the confidence of long-term holders. Low Reserve Risk means high-conviction holders are holding through price pain — historically a strong buy signal.
The ratio of current Bitcoin price to cumulative 'HODL Bank' — the opportunity cost long-term holders have foregone by not selling. Low Reserve Risk = cheap price relative to strong holder conviction.
Reserve Risk = Price / HODL Bank. HODL Bank accumulates daily as each day a coin goes unmoved, adding (price × coin-days-destroyed-avoided). When price is low but HODLing is high, Reserve Risk is very low.
Values below 0.004 — extreme undervaluation relative to long-term holder conviction. Green zone on the chart marks historical buying opportunities.
Dec 2018: ~0.002 (green zone) | Mar 2020: ~0.003 (green zone) | Nov 2022: ~0.004 (entering green zone)
How to Read the Score
More On-Chain Signals
Not financial advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.