Exchange Netflow — Bitcoin Capitulation Detector
Exchange supply spikes — measured as BTC held on exchanges relative to its 90-day moving average — capture panic selling events. When holders rush to exchanges to sell, supply spikes above trend. Historically these spikes mark capitulation events that precede bottoms.
Net BTC flow to/from exchanges relative to the 90-day moving average of exchange supply. A positive spike means more BTC arriving at exchanges than usual — potential capitulation selling.
Net exchange inflow/outflow from CoinMetrics data, normalized against the 90-day MA of total exchange balance. Signal fires when exchange supply spikes >2 standard deviations above the trend.
Exchange supply spike above 90d MA — panic capitulation selling. These events, while painful, mark the exhaustion of selling pressure and historically precede price recoveries.
Dec 2018: large exchange inflow spike during capitulation | Nov 2022 FTX collapse: extreme exchange supply spike
How to Read the Score
More On-Chain Signals
Not financial advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.