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Bitcoin Bottom← Today's Score
On-ChainWeight: 73 / 100 · Source: CoinMetrics

HODL Waves — Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Signal

HODL Waves track the age distribution of the entire Bitcoin supply. When the percentage of coins unmoved for 1+ year rises through a bear market, it signals that long-term holders are absorbing supply and not capitulating — a bullish divergence that has preceded every major recovery.

What It Measures

The percentage of Bitcoin's circulating supply that has not moved on-chain for more than 1 year. Rising 1yr+ supply during a bear market means diamond hands are accumulating.

How It's Calculated

From CoinMetrics UTXO age band data. Measures the % of total BTC supply where the most recent on-chain transaction was more than 365 days ago.

Bottom Signal

Rising 1yr+ supply (>60% of circulating supply) during a price decline — long-term holders accumulating through pain. Combined with MVRV Z < 0, this is a historically powerful bottom signal.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018: 1yr+ supply rising to ~55% | Nov 2022: 1yr+ supply hit record ~66% at the bottom

How to Read the Score

+0.3 to +1.0
Strong Bottom Signal
0 to +0.3
Mild Bottom Signal
−0.3 to 0
Neutral / Slight Caution
−1.0 to −0.3
No Bottom Signal
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Not financial advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.