HODL Waves — Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Signal

Deep Dive: How HODL Waves (1yr+ Supply) Works

HODL Waves visualize the age distribution of the entire Bitcoin supply. Every UTXO has a timestamp — the date it was last moved on-chain. By grouping UTXOs into age bands (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3+ years), HODL Waves produce a stacked area chart that shows how the composition of the Bitcoin supply shifts across market cycles. The insight is that during bull markets, old coins wake up and get spent (the older bands thin out as coins are sold). During bear markets, new coins stop moving and quietly age into older bands (the 1yr+ band thickens).

The 1-year+ supply metric is the most actionable signal from the HODL Waves framework. It measures the percentage of all BTC that has not moved in over 365 days. A rising 1yr+ supply during a price decline is the on-chain fingerprint of long-term holder accumulation under fire — these are the market participants who have held through previous cycles, who bought Bitcoin with conviction, and who are choosing not to sell even as prices fall toward or below their cost basis. When this cohort is growing, the market's supply is progressively concentrating in the hands of its least-likely-to-sell holders.

The November 2022 bottom produced the most extreme HODL Waves reading in Bitcoin's history: over 66% of the circulating supply had not moved in more than one year. This record illiquidity — the majority of Bitcoin locked in long-term holder wallets — coincided precisely with the cycle bottom. The combination of record long-term holder accumulation (HODL Waves) and maximum holder pain (MVRV Z-Score below 0, NUPL in Capitulation) creates the structural conditions for a bottom: very little BTC available to sell, and the sellers who remain are being squeezed out by economic necessity rather than strategic selling.