aSOPR — Bitcoin Spending Profit/Loss Signal

Deep Dive: How aSOPR (7d MA) Works

The aSOPR (adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) answers a precise question: is the Bitcoin being moved on-chain today being sold at a profit or at a loss? For each spent output — each coin that moved — the metric compares the USD value at time of movement to the USD value when that coin was last received. A ratio above 1.0 means the average spent coin is being sold at a profit. Below 1.0 means the average coin is being sold at a loss. The 'adjusted' prefix means outputs younger than 1 hour are excluded, filtering out exchange-internal movements that don't represent real economic decisions.

The critical insight is what sustained below-1.0 readings mean psychologically. When the entire market is, on average, selling at a loss, it signals capitulation — holders who bought higher have decided the pain of waiting is worse than locking in the loss. This loss-realization phase is actually healthy for the market: it moves coins from weak hands (those who can't stomach the drawdown) to strong hands (those who understand the cycle). Each day of below-1.0 aSOPR means the pool of future forced sellers shrinks. The bottom forms when this process exhausts.

aSOPR is particularly useful for confirming when capitulation is ending. When aSOPR recovers from below 1.0 back above 1.0 and holds above it — especially after a sustained period of loss-taking — it signals that the composition of sellers has shifted. The remaining on-chain activity is now dominated by profitable sales, meaning long-term holders who bought at lower prices are the primary movers. This transition from loss-dominant to profit-dominant on-chain activity has historically preceded recoveries. In the Bitcoin Bottom Score, aSOPR carries a weight of 0.74 and is one of the most direct behavioral measures of market capitulation.