aSOPR — Bitcoin Spending Profit/Loss Signal
The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) measures whether Bitcoin being spent on-chain is being sold at a profit or a loss. When the market is in sustained loss-taking (aSOPR < 1), it signals capitulation and historically precedes bottoms.
The average profit ratio of all Bitcoin transactions: (price at time of sale) / (price at time of purchase) for each spent output. Excludes coin-hour-old outputs to filter noise.
aSOPR = Σ(realized value) / Σ(value at creation) across all spent outputs in a day, excluding outputs younger than 1 hour, smoothed with a 7-day moving average.
Sustained readings below 1.0 — coins are being sold at a loss on average. This capitulation zone, when held for multiple days/weeks, has marked every major cycle bottom.
Dec 2018 bottom: ~0.960 (deep capitulation) | Jun 2022 LUNA: ~0.975 | Nov 2022: ~0.980
How to Read the Score
More On-Chain Signals
Not financial advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.