Market & MacroWeight: 63 / 100 · Source: FRED

DXY US Dollar Index — Bitcoin Macro Inverse Signal

The DXY (US Dollar Index) measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. Bitcoin has a historically inverse relationship with the dollar: a strong and rising dollar crushes risk assets, while a peaking and falling dollar has marked Bitcoin cycle bottoms.

What It Measures

The value of the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies (EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%). A high DXY indicates dollar strength; low DXY indicates dollar weakness.

How It's Calculated

ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) from FRED. Signal score peaks when DXY is elevated and beginning to roll over (historically bullish for Bitcoin), and bottoms when DXY is low (bearish).

Bottom Signal

DXY at multi-year highs and beginning to decline — dollar strength peaking coincided with Bitcoin cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018: DXY peaked near 97 as BTC bottomed | Oct 2022: DXY hit 20-year high of 114 — exact peak coincided with BTC bottom at $15.5k