Every Bitcoin bull market has been preceded by a halving. Every bear market bottom has occurred 60–75% through the 4-year cycle. Understanding where we are in the current cycle is the foundation of on-chain-based investing — and it's what the Halving Cycle Position signal tracks daily in the Bitcoin Bottom Score.
25 on-chain signals including Halving Cycle Position — updated twice daily, free, no signup.
Bitcoin's supply schedule is hardcoded into its protocol. Approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years), the block reward paid to miners is cut in half — an event called the "halving." This mechanically reduces the rate of new BTC entering circulation by 50%, creating a supply shock at predictable intervals.
Miners — who receive newly issued BTC as compensation — are forced to sell a portion of earnings to cover operating costs. After a halving, this supply of freshly mined BTC hitting the market drops sharply. If demand remains constant or grows, price rises to balance supply and demand. This dynamic has produced a recognizable four-phase cycle that has repeated across all four halvings to date.
The cycle is not a guarantee — it is an emergent property of Bitcoin's fixed supply schedule interacting with market psychology. Each cycle has been less extreme than the last as Bitcoin's market cap has grown and institutional adoption has deepened. But the fundamental supply-demand dynamic of the halving continues to shape long-term price behavior.
New supply shock kicks in. Price often trades sideways or rallies modestly as on-chain accumulation builds. Long-term holders absorb available supply. MVRV typically recovering from lows toward 1.0.
Reduced supply meets rising demand. Retail FOMO enters. On-chain metrics (MVRV, NUPL) extend into overvalued territory. Exchange reserves decline as more BTC moves to cold storage. Fear & Greed frequently in Extreme Greed (80+).
Long-term holders distribute to new buyers. MVRV Z-Score peaks above 5–7. NUPL reaches Euphoria/Greed zone. Exchange reserves stop declining. Funding rates spike. The cycle top forms — often suddenly.
Price corrects 70–85%. Retail capitulates. Miners struggle. MVRV Z-Score turns negative. Puell Multiple below 0.5. NUPL reaches Capitulation zone. The next cycle bottom forms here — confirmed by on-chain signal convergence.
| Halving | Cycle Bottom | Bottom Price | Cycle Peak | Peak Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2011 | ~$2 | Nov 2013 | ~$1,150 |
| Jul 2016 | Jan 2015 | ~$150 | Dec 2017 | ~$20,000 |
| May 2020 | Dec 2018 | ~$3,200 | Nov 2021 | ~$69,000 |
| Apr 2024 | Nov 2022 | ~$15,500 | Jan 2025 | ~$109,000 |
Each cycle bottom has occurred before the subsequent halving, with on-chain signals converging at the low. Gains measured from cycle bottom to next cycle peak.
The most recent halving occurred on April 19, 2024 at block 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The next halving is expected around April 2028. That makes the current cycle approximately 1,458 days long (the historical average).
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of ~$109,000 in January 2025 — roughly 9 months post-halving, consistent with historical bull market timing. The subsequent correction has brought the Bitcoin Bottom Score back into elevated territory as multiple on-chain signals move toward cycle bottom conditions.
Historical bottom window based on 60–75% cycle completion (days 875–1,095 post-halving). Not a price prediction. Track live signals for confirmation.
Cycle position alone is not enough to call a bottom — timing relative to the halving establishes the opportunity window, but on-chain capitulation signals confirm when the accumulation phase has begun. These five signals have converged at every confirmed cycle low:
See how concentrating Bitcoin purchases in the accumulation phase of each cycle would have performed vs. uniform DCA — using real historical data from 2017.
Try the DCA Calculator →25 signals including Halving Cycle Position. Free, updated twice daily. When to buy Bitcoin →
Not financial advice. Historical cycle patterns do not guarantee future results. Bitcoin carries substantial risk. Always conduct your own research.