Bitcoin has produced three major buy opportunities since 2017 — December 2018, March 2020, and November 2022. Each time, the same cluster of on-chain signals fired simultaneously. This guide explains which signals matter, what thresholds to watch, and how to use the live Bitcoin Bottom Score to track all 25 indicators in one place.
All 25 signals updated twice daily. See the current probability score and which indicators are at extreme readings.
Bitcoin moves in cycles. Each cycle follows a consistent pattern: euphoric bull market top → capitulation bear market → on-chain accumulation → recovery. The difference between buying at a cycle bottom vs. buying at a cycle top can be 10x or more in long-term returns.
The challenge is that bottoms feel psychologically impossible to buy. When MVRV Z-Score hits −0.4 and Fear & Greed reads 8, the news is universally negative and every financial commentator predicts further declines. On-chain data cuts through the noise by measuring actual economic activity on the blockchain — not sentiment, not narratives.
| Cycle Bottom | BTC Price | Drawdown | MVRV Z | Puell | NUPL | Fear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | ~$3,200 | −84% | −0.40 | 0.31 | −0.12 | 8 |
| Mar 2020 | ~$4,900 | −63% | −0.24 | 0.45 | −0.01 | 8 |
| Nov 2022 | ~$15,500 | −77% | −0.23 | 0.44 | −0.17 | 6 |
All three bottoms shared MVRV Z-Score below 0, Puell Multiple below 0.5, and Fear & Greed in single digits.
Of the 25 signals in the model, these six have the strongest track record of firing near every confirmed cycle low. No single metric is sufficient alone — the edge comes from convergence across multiple independent data sources.
Measures Bitcoin's market cap vs. realized cap. When it drops below 0, the market is trading below the aggregate cost basis of all coins — a condition that has coincided with every cycle bottom since 2011.
Divides daily miner revenue by its 365-day average. Below 0.5 means miners are earning less than half their historical norm — leading to miner capitulation, which exhausts the primary source of forced selling.
Detects miner capitulation via hash rate moving average crossovers. A buy signal fires when the 30-day MA crosses back above the 60-day after a decline — historically one of the most precise cycle bottom signals.
Measures the net unrealized profit or loss across all Bitcoin holders. When NUPL turns negative, the average holder is at a loss — historically the most extreme fear conditions and the highest-conviction long-term entry points.
Composite sentiment indicator. Readings below 15 represent maximum market despair — historically the best time to accumulate according to Warren Buffett's maxim: be greedy when others are fearful.
Perpetual futures funding rates represent the cost of holding leveraged long positions. Deeply negative rates mean shorts are paying longs — indicating overwhelmingly bearish positioning. Historically resolved in sharp upward reversals.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the practice of buying fixed amounts at regular intervals, regardless of price. On-chain signals let you make that DCA strategy adaptive — increasing position size when multiple bottom indicators align, and reducing it during euphoric bull market conditions.
Each of the 25 signals has its own page with historical charts, current readings, and bottom-detection methodology.
Compare buying every day vs only buying when the Bitcoin Bottom Score exceeds a threshold — using real historical data from 2017.
Try the DCA Calculator →Free, updated twice daily. No signup required. View full history from 2017 →
Not financial advice. On-chain signals are based on historical patterns and may not predict future performance. Bitcoin carries substantial risk; past cycle behavior does not guarantee future results.