On-ChainWeight: 42 / 100 · Source: CoinMetrics

Realized Price Ratio — Bitcoin Below Cost Basis Signal

The Realized Price is the average price at which every bitcoin last moved on-chain — the aggregate cost basis of all BTC holders. When the market price falls below the realized price, the average holder is at an unrealized loss — a historically rare and powerful buying signal.

What It Measures

The ratio of current BTC price to the Bitcoin Realized Price (also called Realized Cap / Circulating Supply). Values below 1.0 mean the market is trading below the average on-chain purchase price.

How It's Calculated

Realized Price = Realized Cap / Circulating Supply. Realized Cap = Σ(UTXO value at time of last move × current supply). Ratio = Current Price / Realized Price.

Bottom Signal

Ratio below 1.0 — market price below the aggregate on-chain cost basis. This condition (market below realized price) has occurred only during the deepest bear market troughs.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018: price ~60% below realized price | Nov 2022: price briefly below realized price for first time since 2020 | Mar 2020: brief dip below realized price