On-ChainWeight: 45 / 100 · Source: Binance

Bitcoin RSI & 200-Week Moving Average — Technical Bottom Signal

The combination of weekly RSI extreme oversold readings and price below the 200-week exponential moving average has been a near-perfect buy signal for Bitcoin across multiple cycles. Every major cycle bottom has featured both conditions simultaneously.

What It Measures

Weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) measuring overbought/oversold momentum on the weekly timeframe, combined with the position of Bitcoin's price relative to its 200-week exponential moving average — a long-term trend baseline.

How It's Calculated

Weekly RSI = 100 − (100 / (1 + RS)) where RS = avg weekly gains / avg weekly losses over 14 periods. 200w EMA from Binance BTCUSDT weekly close data.

Bottom Signal

Weekly RSI below 30 (extreme oversold) AND price below the 200-week EMA — the combination of these two conditions has occurred only at major cycle bottoms and has never failed to produce significant returns within 12 months.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018: weekly RSI ~28, price below 200w EMA | Nov 2022: weekly RSI ~32, price briefly touched 200w EMA | Mar 2020: RSI ~30 flash