The Bitcoin Bottom Score aggregates 25 on-chain and macro signals into a single daily probability score from 0–100%. This page explains every signal, its data source, how it is weighted, and how the composite score is calculated. Full transparency — no black box.
Each signal is normalized to a score between −1.0 and +1.0 based on its historical distribution. A score of +1.0 means the signal is at the most extreme bottom-like reading in its history. A score of −1.0 means it is at the most extreme top-like reading.
Signals are then multiplied by their weight (0.35–0.96) and summed into a composite score. The composite is passed through a sigmoid function calibrated against every confirmed Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2017 to produce the final 0–100% probability output.
Weights were determined by backtesting each signal against the three confirmed cycle bottoms (December 2018, March 2020, November 2022) and measuring precision at each threshold. Higher-weighted signals had stronger predictive accuracy across all three events independently.
| Score | Label | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 80–100% | All in BTC | Extreme capitulation across all signal categories. Maximum conviction accumulation zone. |
| 75–79% | DCA Heavy | Multiple high-weight signals firing simultaneously. Strong historical precedent for cycle low. |
| 70–74% | Start to DCA | On-chain conditions resembling early cycle bottom. Begin systematic accumulation. |
| 45–69% | Hold BTC | Mixed signals. No strong directional evidence. Hold existing position. |
| 24–44% | Sell Slowly | On-chain conditions deteriorating. Gradually reduce exposure. |
| 0–23% | All in Cash | Signals indicate cycle top or high-risk environment. Move to cash. |
Weights reflect each signal's historical predictive accuracy at confirmed cycle bottoms. Signals marked unavailable on any given day fall back to their last cached value or are excluded from the composite.
Market cap divided by realized cap. Values below 1.0 indicate the market is trading below aggregate cost basis — historically the most reliable cycle bottom signal.
The average price at which every coin last moved on-chain. When spot price approaches realized price, sellers are near exhaustion.
Measures the risk/reward of investing relative to long-term holder conviction. Low values indicate strong holder conviction combined with low price — historically optimal entry zones.
Daily miner issuance value divided by its 365-day moving average. Below 0.5 signals miner capitulation — forced selling near exhaustion.
Measures the aggregate unrealized profit/loss of all holders. Negative values (capitulation zone) have coincided with every confirmed cycle bottom.
Ratio of realized price to paid price for coins moved on-chain. Sustained readings below 1.0 indicate holders selling at a loss — a classic capitulation signal.
Detects miner capitulation via hash rate moving average crossovers. A buy signal fires when the 30-day MA crosses above the 60-day after a decline.
Ratio of short-term holder supply to long-term holder supply. At bottoms, LTHs accumulate while STHs capitulate — a classic supply transfer pattern.
Net BTC flow to/from exchanges. Sustained outflows during price declines indicate accumulation by strong hands.
Percentage of supply unmoved for 1+ years. Rising HODL waves during bear markets indicate long-term holders refusing to sell at depressed prices.
Year-over-year change in global M2 money supply. Bitcoin historically leads M2 inflections by 8–12 weeks. Expanding liquidity is the macro tailwind for cycle recoveries.
Net daily institutional flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs combined with the ETF cost basis (EAEAP). Negative flows at low prices signal institutional accumulation.
The Fed's policy rate and market-implied forward expectations. Rate cuts historically precede Bitcoin cycle recoveries by 3–6 months.
Perpetual futures funding rates smoothed over 14 days. Deeply negative rates indicate maximum bearish positioning — historically resolved in sharp upward reversals.
30-day change in perpetual futures open interest. Declining OI during price recovery signals short covering rather than leveraged speculation — healthier for sustained recovery.
The US Dollar Index. Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with DXY. Dollar weakness (DXY declining) historically coincides with Bitcoin cycle recoveries.
10-year Treasury inflation-protected yield. Falling real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Estimated percentage of ETF holders in profit based on flow-weighted average entry price (EAEAP). High underwater ETF exposure signals capitulation risk.
Aggregated prediction market probabilities for Bitcoin price milestones. Extreme pessimism in prediction markets has historically preceded cycle reversals.
Days since last halving as a fraction of the expected 1,458-day cycle. Historical cycle analysis shows bottoms typically occur 12–18 months post-halving.
Composite sentiment index (0–100). Readings below 15 represent maximum market despair — historically the highest-conviction long-term entry windows.
Bitcoin market cap divided by total stablecoin supply. Low SSR means stablecoins represent significant purchasing power relative to Bitcoin — potential dry powder for a rally.
Normalized search interest for 'Bitcoin'. Cycle bottoms coincide with multi-year lows in search volume — retail has fully capitulated and lost interest.
Weekly RSI below 30 and price below the 200-day moving average confirm the technical picture consistent with cycle bottom conditions.
Current drawdown from all-time high. Historical cycle bottoms have occurred at drawdowns of 70–85% from ATH. Deep drawdowns combined with on-chain capitulation signals are high-conviction.
The score refreshes twice daily at 00:05 UTC and 12:05 UTC.
On-chain data from CoinMetrics carries a 24-hour reporting lag — each update reflects the prior day's confirmed blockchain data. Macro data (FRED, DXY, yields) updates on US business days. Derivatives data (funding rates, open interest) is near real-time via CoinGlass and Binance.
If a data source is unavailable on a given day, the signal falls back to its last cached value (up to 48 hours old) before being excluded from the composite entirely.
The model is calibrated on three confirmed cycle bottoms(Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Nov 2022). Three data points is a small sample. The model may not generalize to novel macroeconomic regimes, structural changes to Bitcoin's market (e.g., significantly higher ETF penetration), or black swan events.
Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future performance. This tool provides probabilistic analysis based on historical on-chain patterns — it is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and consider your personal risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
This tool is operated independently. It has no affiliation with Glassnode, CoinMetrics, or any data provider listed above.
bitcoinbottom.app was built by a Bitcoin analyst frustrated with having to check 10+ separate tools to get a complete picture of cycle conditions. The goal is simple: one number, updated daily, that aggregates the signals that have historically mattered most at cycle bottoms. Free, no account required, no paywall.