On-ChainWeight: 42 / 100 · Source: Binance

ATH Drawdown % — Bitcoin Bear Market Depth Signal

The percentage Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high is one of the simplest and most reliable cycle bottom indicators. Every major Bitcoin cycle bottom has occurred with a drawdown of 70% or more from the previous ATH. This signal flags when the drawdown depth is historically consistent with a major bottom.

What It Measures

How far Bitcoin's current price is below its all-time high, expressed as a percentage. A drawdown of −80% means the current price is 20% of the ATH.

How It's Calculated

ATH Drawdown = (Current Price − All-Time High Price) / All-Time High Price × 100%. ATH is continuously tracked from Binance historical data.

Bottom Signal

Drawdown exceeding −70% from ATH — every confirmed Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2012 has featured a drawdown of at least 70%. Deeper drawdowns (>80%) have historically been extreme buying opportunities.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Dec 2018: −84% from $20k ATH | Mar 2020: −63% (COVID anomaly) | Nov 2022: −77% from $69k ATH | Jun 2022 LUNA: −74%