Market & MacroWeight: 65 / 100 · Source: Farside / Binance

ETF Investor Profitability — Institutional Pain Gauge

This signal tracks whether the average Bitcoin ETF investor is currently in profit or at a loss, based on the flow-weighted average cost basis (EAEAP). When ETF investors are underwater, institutional holders face maximum selling pressure — historically a capitulation signal.

What It Measures

Whether the estimated average purchase price of US Bitcoin ETF investors is above or below the current BTC price. Derived from daily ETF flow volumes paired with BTC prices at time of purchase.

How It's Calculated

EAEAP (ETF Effective Average Entry Price) = Σ(daily USD flows) / Σ(daily USD flows / BTC price on that day). Signal = (BTC current price − EAEAP) / EAEAP × 100.

Bottom Signal

ETF investors underwater (current price < EAEAP) — institutional holders at maximum unrealized loss. Historically these periods have been strong accumulation windows as forced selling from ETF redemptions exhausts.

Historical Readings at Cycle Bottoms

Feb–Mar 2025 correction: ETF investors briefly underwater after $100k+ average entry prices from late 2024